May 5 • 51M

27: Stephen Grugett (Manifold Markets Founder) - Predictions Markets & Revolutionizing Governance

Dwarkesh Patel
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Host Dwarkesh Patel interviews economists, scientists, and philosophers about their big ideas. Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/DwarkeshPatel
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Stephen Grugett is a cofounder of Manifold Markets, where anyone can create a prediction market. We discuss how predictions markets can change how countries and companies make important decisions.

Manifold Markets: https://manifold.markets/

Watch on YouTube:

Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp

Timestamps:

(0:00:00) - Introduction

(0:02:29) - Predicting the future

(0:05:16) - Getting Accurate Information

(0:06:20) - Potentials

(0:09:29) - Not using internal prediction markets

(0:11:04) - Doing the painful thing

(0:13:31) - Decision Making Process

(0:14:52) - Grugett’s opinion about insider trading

(0:16:23) - The Role of prediction market

(0:18:17) - Dealing with the Speculators

(0:20:33) - Criticism of Prediction Markets

(0:22:24) - The world when people cared about prediction markets

(0:26:10) - Grugett’s Profile Background/Experience

(0:28:49) - User Result Market

(0:30:17) - The most important mechanism

(0:32:59) - The 1000 manifold dollars

(0:40:30) - Efficient financial markets

(0:46:28) - Manifold Markets Job/Career Openings

(0:48:02) - Objectives of Manifold Markets