Jul 9, 2022Liked by Dwarkesh Patel

This was an intense take. To internalize this argument will take me some time.

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Jul 7, 2022Liked by Dwarkesh Patel

Fascinating. We all want to become a legend in our own time. If the EA movement lives for a long time then the chances of being a legend within it may diminish though.

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Another factor is how much traction EA will gain outside of the United States, particularly in China. Changpeng Zhao, SBF’s Chinese counterpart, is a notable counterexample.

At $46 billion, the amount committed to EA is about 0.3% of the total wealth of the 2021 Forbes 400. What percentage will it be in 30 years?

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Jun 30, 2022Liked by Dwarkesh Patel

hah love the original title idea lol

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Well, Napoleon revolutionized the way armies were operating, sure. But it didn't end so good for his army and himself, either. If one reads Tolstoi, it becomes apparent that Napoleon did many things right that did not work out and many other things wrong that actually worked out, so he himself apparently didn't know how to differentiate between all of this.

And then also we always take all this examples of all this BIG MEN from history, where history seemingly is just what the servants of the BIG MEN were told to tell us. Nomadic people did much to fight inequality and thus, continous reign of BIG MEN, by not using script, staying on the fringe of states (in what James C. Scott called Zomia for one mountaneous region in Southwest Asia). It turns out that always following the egoistical individual over the needs of the entire group leads to exploitation. Our focus on the egoistical BIG MEN is the underlying problem for climate change, state of democracy and so on, don't you think?

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Aug 14, 2022·edited Aug 14, 2022

The $46 billion estimate from 80000hours was based on very outdated values for Dustin Moskovitz’s and SBF’s wealth. It's based on a Forbes estimate that Moskovitz is worth $25 billion, for instance, and, as you mention in your first footnote, they've revised that estimate down to $9 billion.

It's hard to know how much the other factors that go into 80000hours's estimate have changed, but I think it's important to point out that there has been a significant market downturn in both tech stocks and crypto that is very likely to have affected other wealthy EAs.

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